Ember

Ember is a groundbreaking public AI prediction engine that revolutionizes the way we trust AI in making predictions. Built on the principle that transparency is key to trust, Ember utilizes three distinct AI models—Claude by Anthropic, Grok by xAI, and Gemini by Google. Each model independently evaluates live Polymarket markets every morning at 7 AM EST, without consulting one another. This competitive structure fosters genuine divergence, particularly when their predictions differ from the crowd by 10 points or more, marking a high-conviction signal. The real-time accuracy of these predictions is meticulously tracked using Brier scores, ensuring that every outcome is timestamped and recorded without edits or deletions. Ember's commitment to building a public record fosters accountability and provides users with a reliable framework for making informed betting decisions.

Independent AI Models

Ember leverages three independent AI models—Claude, Grok, and Gemini—each specializing in different aspects of prediction. This independence ensures a diverse range of insights, as they do not consult each other, promoting a competitive environment that leads to more reliable signals.

High-Conviction Divergence Signals

When any of the AI models diverge from the crowd by 10 or more points, it triggers a high-conviction signal. This feature allows users to identify potential opportunities where the crowd may be wrong, enhancing the chances of making profitable predictions.

Real-Time Data Integration

Ember synthesizes data from over 20 sources, including live prediction markets, sports odds, and AI research feeds, ensuring that its predictions are grounded in the most current and relevant information available across multiple domains.

Transparent Record Keeping

All predictions made by Ember are timestamped and locked before outcomes are revealed, creating a robust public record. This transparency eliminates manipulation and fosters trust, as every wrong call undergoes a post-mortem analysis to learn from mistakes.

Sports Betting

Ember's predictive capabilities are invaluable for sports bettors looking to gain an edge. By analyzing the divergence between AI predictions and public sentiment, users can identify mispriced odds and make more informed betting decisions.

Market Forecasting

Investors and market analysts can utilize Ember to gauge sentiment and predict trends in various markets. The high-conviction signals provide insights that can lead to strategic investment opportunities.

Political Predictions

Ember can be a powerful tool for political analysts and enthusiasts alike. By tracking predictions related to elections and political events, users can gain insights into potential outcomes and the public's sentiment.

AI and Technology Trends

Tech enthusiasts and industry professionals can leverage Ember to stay ahead of emerging trends in AI and technology. By synthesizing data from research feeds and real-time sentiment, Ember provides a comprehensive view of where the industry is headed.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, which reward both accuracy and confidence. This rigorous calibration process helps in assessing the performance of each AI model over time.

What happens if all three AI models agree?

When all three models agree on a prediction, it is noted but does not trigger a high-conviction signal. Divergence among the models is crucial for identifying significant opportunities in the market.

Can I access historical predictions made by Ember?

Yes, Ember maintains a transparent public record of all predictions made over the past 365 days, including post-mortem analyses for wrong calls. This allows users to learn from previous outcomes.

What types of data does Ember analyze before making predictions?

Ember synthesizes data from a wide array of sources, including live prediction markets, bookmaker lines, AI research feeds, and real-time sentiment analysis from social media platforms, ensuring well-rounded predictions.